Baseball Betting

Yao can see the end of the line

Basketball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Your average human being doesn't stand 7-foot-6 and weigh 310 pounds.

In basketball, size among the skilled is the holy grail -- the only thing you can't teach. But, like anything else, there are pros and cons to having a talented big man that looks down at the rest of us.

Nearly 15 months ago, the Houston Rockets were battling the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. Yao Ming dominated, scoring 28 points, including eight in the final four minutes, to lift Houston to an impressive 100-92 win.

Of course the Lakers responded, but their path to what would be the first of back-to-back championships was made much easier when Yao was diagnosed with a sprained ankle after Game 3 of that set.

A follow-up test revealed a hairline fracture in the big man's left foot, and he was ruled out for the remainder of the playoffs. At the time, Yao downplayed the injury and a conservative treatment plan was drawn up, calling for him to cease all physical training and to use a walking boot in order to immobilize the foot and promote healing.

The prognosis had the foot healing over the summer but the fracture failed to respond and Yao underwent surgery, putting the playing career of the Rockets' cornerstone in jeopardy.

For now, the Rockets are expecting Yao to be back for the 2010-11 campaign but the seven-time All-Star caused quite a stir in his native China on Tuesday, intimating he would in fact have to consider retiring if the foot fails to recover.

"If the foot injury does not heal next season I might choose to call it quits," Yao, who is entering the last year of his contract, said in an interview with Chinese state media.

The big man had already indicated that his days playing for the Chinese National team were probably behind him.

"The foot injury will not allow me to play so many games anymore," Yao said. "Like I said before, I will quit the national team and the sport one day. It's what happens to every athlete."

It's Yao's prodigious size that makes leg injuries a far more serious subject, Other talented big men like Sam Bowie, Bill Walton and another former Rocket, Ralph Sampson, had careers cut short by a seemingly never-ending series of leg injuries. Meanwhile, current Portland pivot Greg Oden may be heading in a similar direction.

Yao, an eight-year NBA veteran, has now had three different fractures of the left foot and a hairline crack of the right leg. He has had five-consecutive seasons interrupted or ended by some kind of injury.

The Shanghai native did return to the floor in late May and has been going through full-contact workouts at Toyota Center, buoying the Rockets' spirits. Meanwhile, Houston general manager Daryl Morey continues to indicate Yao is indeed on pace to start training camp healthy and on time.

"Yao is on schedule to be available the first day of training camp," Morey told a Houston newspaper on Tuesday. "He's continued to make positive strides in his rehab work and all medical reports so far have been positive. He's been working consistently four to five days a week, and we expect him to be there when we open camp on September 25th."

A healthy Yao instantly turns the Rockets back into a Western Conference contender. In fact, a starting lineup featuring the Chinese star along with Luis Scola, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin projects as one of the NBA's best.

But, projections are just that -- an estimate of future possibilities based on current events that remain fluid.

And no projection to my knowledge has ever taken into account the doubt that has crept into the mind of a 7-foot-6, oft-injured former All-Star.


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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

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